Betting Over or Under the Total
Sports enthusiasts who are also eager to make some additional money through recreational betting can choose from a variety of betting options. Many online gambling sites offer a choice of betting options for each game. Sometimes, you might be unwilling to take a call on which team will win a particular game, but are convinced that the total score will be over 50 or under 50.
This scenario can arise for instance in a football game where both teams have a great defense but weak offense. In such a case, the combined total of the scores of the two teams is more likely to be lower than 50. Whether you follow football, soccer, hockey, baseball, or basketball, you can always find an over/under or total bet.
Handicapping
When trying to calculate the total expected score in a hockey game you only have to add the average goals scored and the average goals allowed and divide by 2. However, when it comes to baseball, the factors to consider are more numerous as the form of the first pitcher as well as the lineup, the past performance of the batters against pitchers in similar form, and more have to be taken into consideration. However, as baseball statistics are available in plenty, it is fairly easy to figure these out.
When it comes to over/under betting on NLF games you need to calculate the handicap by taking the median points and the league average and diving these by two.
Key Numbers
When it comes to placing total bets on NFL games, you need to be aware of the most frequent totals achieved. In descending order these are: 41, 43, 37, 44, 52, 33, and 47. So if your model predicts a total of 41.3 you can safely place an over 41 bet. This is because the over 41 bet is likely to give you three of the top four most common outcomes.
Odds and Evens
Some games such as football and soccer are played until a tie is broken. This means that in these games the chances of an even total occurring are almost negligible. Additionally, in a low scoring game such as football, an over/under betting line of 2.5 has only four ways for the under to win, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, and 0-2. This is because, if there is a tie (1-1) the game will be played until a team emerges as a clear winner. This reduces the chances of an under bet actually winning. By combining this information in a parley with a point spread bet you can easily increase your winnings significantly.
Off Market Prices
Many online gambling sites targeting recreational sports bettors are aware that fans are biased to betting for an over total rather than an under total. As such they are likely to add a 0.5 point to the betting line. You can spot this by looking at the betting lines offered by various sites and if you find that one site is offering a 0.5 point line greater than the other, you can bet for the under total with them to increase your odds of winning.
Combining this information with the fact that the most frequent scores in NFL games are 41, 43, 37, 44, 52, 33, and 47, you can pick winning total bets with ease. If you combine this with bonus plays and cash bonuses, you can significantly increase your winnings.
Total betting can be profitable for recreational bettors if they understand the way the bookmakers and gambling sites offer the lines. The gambling sites are aware that recreations bettors would rather bet that something will happen than that something will not.
This means that the sites skew the odds against the over bettors. As far as possible you need to pick the under bet, keeping in mind the handicaps as well as the key numbers. When it comes to low scoring games with no tie allowed, you need to exclude the even scores as well when calculating the handicap and looking for key numbers.
The Main Objective
As a fan you are likely to be up to speed on the form of the various teams and the stats of the players and team averages. However, you also need to factor in things like the home team advantage, the weather, and the specific line up and fitness of players on a given day. By factoring in this information into the stats and handicap calculations even as you understand the strategies used by book makers and gambling sites to increase their profits, you will be able to end the season profitably.
