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How to Win Big Betting on MLB Streaks
Unlike any other sport, baseball is a game dictated by the streak.
Every world championship team can look back on a season filled with winning and
losing streaks. Every Cy Young Award winner will string together three,
four or even five bad starts at some point.
Every batting champion will have a 2 for 28 stretch, or strike out 11 times
during a four game road trip. This goes for teams and players at the other
end of the spectrum as well. Clubs 30 games out of first place will go on
4 and 5 game winning streaks while backup catchers barely batting their weight
will suddenly hit .700 for a two week stint in early August. Recognizing these
streaks and incorporating them into your handicapping is a vital part of betting
The key is in the number "3". Once a trend, whether upwards or down,
reaches a span of three consecutive games (or starts), it can be a good
indicator that a player, or an entire ball club, is about to embark on a streak.
I have used these statistical streaks to great success in betting on baseball.
Knowing how to spot these trends will help you expose numerous underdogs, some
with money lines of +150 or more, during the course of a season.
Key Stats to Focus On
- Team winning/losing streak - This may be a given and riddled with
cliche's, but winning and losing is contagious and after a club reaches
three consecutive in either direction, attention should be paid. The
longer the streak, the more it should be weighed, when making your picks.
- Team runs scored - Looking for an increase/decrease in runs scored is
another key trend. Once again, noticing sudden run scoring changes
over a team's past three games can help realize a team that is hot or one
that is slumping.
- Team winning/losing streak against an opponent - There is a trick to
predicting outcomes from this streak, but it's one that should not be
ignored. A team that has lost three or more consecutive games to an
opponent will usually result in that team playing with a bit more fire and
determination, looking to put an end to the recent domination. Though,
teams with a long streak (8+) of wins or losses against the same opponent is
usually a psychological one, and a good one to ride until the tide begins to
turn in the opposite direction.
- Team winning/losing streak with/against the same starting pitcher -
Don't confuse this with the pitcher's win/loss record. The team's
win/loss record is what needs to be looked at. Once again, the magic
starting number is three.
- Pitchers HRs allowed - Notice a pitcher who's last three starts shows a
trend upwards (or downwards) in HRs allowed? Probably a sign of things
- Pitchers ERA - Same as above, only key in on the earned runs.
- Pitchers Ks - Ditto. Strikeout spikes over three or more starts is
a good sign that a hurler is in a groove. A reduction in the pitchers
normal K ratio over three or more starts oftentimes points to a hurler
having problem with their control, or some other nagging issue.
I want to point out a couple of streaks that some MLB bettors tend to put far
too much weight on.
- Pitchers W-L - Although it should not be ignored, a pitcher who rattles
off 3+ straight wins or losses isn't necessarily the one to take the credit
(or blame). Run support (good or bad), a weak bullpen, or a bad
defense could be the main contributing factors to this streak.
- Home/Away W-L streaks - Just not a streak you can rely on. Perhaps
it's due to the normalcy of winning at home and losing on the road.
Streak Breaking Situations
Not only can a MLB bettor bang the book by recognizing streaks, but also
recognizing when a streak might come to an end. Here are some key streak
breaking situations to look for.
- Player additions - Players acquired through mid-season trade or call up
from the minors as well as players returning from long stints on the DL, can
have quite an effect on a team in the middle of a losing streak.
- Leadership changes - Shakeups in the front office and/or managerial
changes can bring about the optimism and drive needed to halt a bad streak.
- Off the field issues - Any number of personal issues and/or controversy
revolving around a single player and entire teams alike, can help spell doom
to winning streaks.
- Second game at home after a road trip - Everyone likes home cooking and
players are no different. Why the second game and not the first?
Players have the time to relax and settle back in I suppose. All I
know is that many losing streaks end on this day.
A lot to absorb, I know, but over time, a serious MLB bettor will begin to
see these streaks take shape early. You will be able to detect when a
viable streak has begun and when it looks like it may be coming to an end.
Now, take these pearls of wisdom and go start a streak of your own. A