6 NBA Betting Trends to Watch

In each NBA season, interesting betting trends develop that can help you make money. Of course, you can only take advantage of this information when you know what to look for.

So what trends should you focus on with NBA betting?

This post covers 6 trends that'll improve your odds of winning bets.

1. Against the Spread - ATS

This is one of the most-common betting stats that you'll find, and it can be useful in any sport. But this is especially the case in the NBA where, over the course of the year, teams play enough games to give you a good sample size.

ATS stats are especially helpful when finding unheralded teams that offer good betting value. For example, during the 2016 NBA season, the Orlando Magic had the best ATS record, going 45 – 36 - 1.

But many bettors wouldn't even think to wager on the Magic because A) they're a small market team, and B) they finished with a below average 35 - 47 record.

But if you HAD wagered on them on a consistent basis, you would have made a nice profit.

On the other hand, the Cleveland Cavaliers finished with the Eastern Conference's best record at 57 – 25.

But their ATS record was only 37 – 43 - 2.

2. Over / Under Trends

Do you like making over / under bets on NBA games?

If not, then you might want to start. There are plenty of handy stats on this subject.

The easiest stat to look for is how often a team's games go under or over the points line.

Referring to the 2016 season again, the Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets both went over 46 times during the regular season. The Miami Heat and Utah Jazz led the league in most times going under, doing so 48 times.

If you can spot trends like these early in the season, you can bet the over or under depending upon the situation.

You can also use pace, or the number of possessions a team has each game, to help determine the over / under.

Here's an example:

The Jazz averaged a league low 91 possessions per game, meaning they played the slowest brand of basketball. You could try to look for times when their games are being overvalued in the over / under category.

3. Home and Road Trends

A home court advantage can help teams win games. But it can also help you win bets when you take a deeper look at the statistics.

Performances at home and on the road are like the difference between night and day for some teams. And when a large portion of the public fails to account for this, you can gain an edge with home / away trends.

Here's an example:

The Portland Trail Blazers had a pretty good home record in 2016, going 28 - 13 and outscoring opponents by 5.7 PPG at the Moda Center.

But their road performance was a different story--they were 16 - 25 and got outscored by 4.1 PPG.

With such a discrepancy, you could have found value in some of the road lines where Portland was favored.

4. Watch Schedules

If you're searching for a trend that doesn't totally revolve around numbers, then a team's travel schedule is good to focus on.

Specifically, you can look for opportunities where they're nearing the end of a long trip and being favored on the point spread.

Here's an example:

The Golden State Warriors may be a great team. But can they cover a -10.5 spread on the fourth game of an East Coast road trip?

The public doesn't always account for travel schedules, which means this is an area where you can gain some value.

5. Favorites Coming off Huge Wins

Wagering that a team will cover a double digit spread is always dicey. Look at the Golden State Warriors in that last example.

But it's even riskier if the favorite is fresh off a huge victory.

Since 2003, teams that won their last game by 15 points or more have only covered the spread in the next contest 43% of the time. Assuming you were to only bet on this trend alone, you'd be a big winner.

Of course, the trouble is spotting exact situations where you get a favorite coming of 15+ point victories coupled with a -10 or higher line their next game. But if you're looking for a shortcut in finding this trend, follow great teams during the season.

6. Overall Trends

Some seasons feature overall trends that you can spot with some research.

Here's an example:

The season might open with underdogs winning 58% of the time ATS. Or you may find that home underdogs are only beating the spread 48% of the time.

Here's another example:

A team's games might be going under the over / under in the first eight contests.

These aren't always the easiest stats to find and compile on your own. But you'll sometimes find articles and videos across the internet by writers / handicappers who've spotted one of these trends.

And it really pays to look for bigger trends early in the season so that you can take advantage of them before the public jumps onboard.


The NBA is full of numbers and statistics that can improve your chances of winning a bet. Your job is to find them so that you can gain useful information that'll give you a leg up on other bettors.

If you're totally new to NBA betting trends, then you should start with ATS and over / under numbers because they're easy stats to digest.

As you continue working with numbers and trends, you should start looking for the slightly more advanced stats like home / away performances and overvalued favorites.

NBA betting is just like anything else. The more time you spend with it, the better you're going to be. So keep making wagers throughout the season and slowly work on following trends.